who would win a war between australia and china who would win a war between australia and china

China is also developing the capabilities needed to support military operations at range, said Nouwens, suggesting they could attack across large distances. But China is a different kind of foe a military, economic and technological power capable of making a war felt in the American homeland. Chinas nuclear weapons are estimated to number between 200 and 350, a mere 5 per cent of the United States arsenal, but potentially enough to deter broader conflict through the prospect of mutual destruction. "This is the critical question. If the US went to war with China, who would win? "People in those days, in the spirit of compromise and understanding, were prepared to work together, if only for a short time. President Xi Jinping of China has said unifying Taiwan with mainland China must be achieved. His Communist Party regime has become sufficiently strong militarily, economically and industrially to take Taiwan and directly challenge the United States for regional supremacy. Fishing boats could push into ancestral territory, backed up by armed coast guard vessels. In a matter of minutes, Beijings Rocket Force could cripple Taiwans military, infrastructure and ports. And in a defensive war, China has the enormous advantage of mass, as Stalin demonstrated after the end of 1942.". The US would be challenged by a powerful Chinese fleet in the region. Professor Clinton Fernandes is a former intelligence officer with the Australian Army Intelligence Corps and now Professor of International and Political Studies at the University of New South Wales. Admiral Chris Barrie says that with all the "overblown rhetoric" about the possibility of war against China he thinks there is a danger of forgetting that war should only ever be taken as the last means of resolving insurmountable differences between nation states. Hugh White, an emeritus professor of strategic studies at the Australian National University, has warned about the serious consequences that could arise from not adequately addressing tensions. Mr. Xi has championed Chinas political warfare capabilities as a magic weapon.. Stock exchanges in the United States and other countries might temporarily halt trading because of the enormous economic uncertainties. And the protagonists are testing each others resolve on an almost daily basis. Should a war break out around the South China Sea, the US would be under pressure to quickly neutralise the roughly 10 man-made islands China has created (seen as unsinkable aircraft carriers) to use as military bases. "But, in a large-scale war involving many hundreds of thousands of people in offensive and defensive operations, even before reaching the attendant prospect of reaching a nuclear war threshold, Australia is unlikely to make a substantial difference. Chinas focus on its region would give it a local advantage in any clash with the US. The US military has been racking up decades of in-the-field experience, most recently with deployments in Afghanistan and Iraq and the Middle East. Who would win in a hypothetical battle between China and Japan? That means large paved airfields, humidity-controlled hangars and AI-enhanced maintenance equipment. Jamie Seidel @JamieSeidel 5 min read May 25, 2020 - 11:05AM The United States just lost a battle to save Taiwan from a Chinese invasion and it's not the first time. It may turn out to be childs play compared with the havoc China could wreak on the American homeland in a war. RELATED: It will be bloody: Threat to China. "The defence of Taiwan is predicated on a Chinese invasion but if China's main effort is not an invasion but a blockade, then what? Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) analyst Dr Malcolm Davis disagrees. To walk countries away from war we have concluded that statesmanship finds more purchase on risk aversion than on hawkishness. "A cross-strait invasion is the most dangerous scenario from China's perspective. Tensions between China and Taiwan have been escalating for years, with Beijing now sending fighter jets and nuclear-capable bombers into Taiwan's air defence zone on a near-daily basis. Rockets figure heavily in Beijings arsenal. Are bills set to rise? "Chinas air defences are likely to prove formidable, but so are US and allied air capabilities. The most immediate fight, however, appears to be centred on Taiwan. Chinese control of Taiwan would also strengthen Beijings ability to control the South China Sea by blocking the Luzon Strait and the Balintang and Babuyan channels, Control of Taiwan would make it easier for the PLA to reach Guam using long-range missiles and air power, extending its anti-access capabilities beyond the first island chain.. But its own submarines, combined with air and land launched missiles, could present an almost constant threat. "The joint facility at Pine Gap would be a very important, indeed crucial, element in US intelligence gathering and in Command and Control. Only a decade ago, the US would have easily dominated the Chinese military in almost any scenario, says Australian National University Professor Stephan Fruehling. How this young Indigenous artist is taking inspiration from anime and manga to celebrate his own culture, NBA star Ja Morant suspended, 'takes full responsibility' for nightclub gun video, Andrew Tate shuts down cancer rumors, is accused of recruiting politicians to his cause, 'If carers are going to survive, they need this', says resident pioneering dementia respite care centre. The Australian government has moved to confront Beijing over allegations of human rights abuses in Xinjiang and Hong Kong, and Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian has joined a chorus of. Its a problem long recognised by defence analysts and planners. U.S. supplies of many products could soon run low, paralyzing a vast range of businesses. "The scenario of a Chinese attack on Taiwan is often considered the catalyst but even in this case the reasons for, and management of, the breakdown in China-Taiwan relations in the lead up would be critical. The United States might be forced to confront the shocking realization that the industrial muscle instrumental in victories like that in World War II President Franklin Roosevelts concept of America as the arsenal of democracy has withered and been surpassed by China. Dr. Babbage is the author of the forthcoming book The Next Major War: Can the U.S. and Its Allies Win Against China?. "America would then have to decide whether to go to war to break the blockade.". This is what a statesman should do as a risk averse response. For a second day in a row Taiwan has reported a large-scale air force incursion, escalating tensions in the region. China believes the island is part of its territory and has vowed to take it back with force if necessary. Principles matter, he writes. As with the Gulf War in 2003, Washington is always keen to enlist as many countries as possible to spread the cost and political risk. But would Australia immediately take up the fight? Australia, however, was a strategic asset. But all the US planes cannot be dispatched to Chinas coastline. Spain is a notable exception, however, with 48% believing Russia to have the advantage currently, compared to 32% who feel neither side has the upper hand and 6% who think Ukraine is winning. Jamie Seidel is a freelance writer | @JamieSeidel. There are debates today about how reform of the UN is needed to deal with contemporary security challenges but not much progress has been made. Inflation and unemployment would surge, especially in the period in which the economy is repurposed for the war effort, which might include some automobile manufacturers switching to building aircraft or food-processing companies converting to production of priority pharmaceuticals. "I worry when politicians start to think it is acceptable to use the media to make threats about war. "There would also be a possibility of exceptionalism if most other countries in Asia did not get involved. For China, the worst-case scenario is to have to conduct simultaneous high-intensity operations against Taiwan, the United States, Japan, and other US allies and partners. I think China now has adequate forces, including air, missile, electronic warfare, spec ops, naval, undersea and nuclear, to likely prevail in the first phase and perhaps in subsequent phases too.. AEST = Australian Eastern Standard Time which is 10 hours ahead of GMT (Greenwich Mean Time), abc.net.au/news/what-would-war-with-china-look-like-for-australia-part-1/101328632, Help keep family & friends informed by sharing this article, Defence Department: Leading Seaman Daniel Goodman, Looking deeper at China's military strategy, The conversation we need to have about China, These engineers break their silenceafterdecade of criticism over2011 Queensland flood handling, Tens of thousands of pigs and buffalo pegged for mass culls in Kakadu, in bid to curb feral animals, With Russian forces closing, Svyat rolled the dice in the last days before Bakhmut fell, Anna called police to report an assault, but it backfired and she lost her home, Home ownership remains in fantasy territory for many. "For its part, Australia is casualty averse, as it should be. "Because the stakes for both sides are so high, and both are so well armed, it would swiftly escalate into a full-scale regional maritime war," he says. At home, a concerted effort must be made to find ways to better protect U.S. traditional and social media against Chinese disinformation. If Australia sleepwalks into a war with China, as many analysts fear is happening right now, then amid our strategic slumber we should at least ask one question: what would war with China mean for Australia? Chinas new Type-055 destroyers can carry 112 large missiles. How Japan is fortifying a string of tiny islands to fence in China, Taiwan takes lessons from Ukraine as it speeds development of drones for military use, Visiting US Marine Corps chief warns 'everything in the cupboard' needed to prevent war with China, Man discovers two highly venomous species battling in his shed, Inside the family succession drama threatening to change the K-pop industry forever. Its army is now deploying troops to Africa for peacekeeping missions that give first-hand experience in conflict zones after decades of relative peace. Over the past two decades, China has built formidable political warfare and cyber warfare capabilities designed to penetrate, manipulate and disrupt the United States and allied governments, media organizations, businesses and civil society. "It would also have to be true that if any of the commentators were taken seriously the impact of this reality of preparing for war with China would now be affecting us all. China is now the dominant global industrial power by many measures. "The question requires urgent, high-profile debate in parliament and among the wider public. "Australia's real utility is as a strategic asset, giving both legitimacy and credibility to the US decision to employ its very formidable military force, and at the same time providing the US with a secure rear that could guarantee logistic and operational support. Our former role in the establishment of the UN is an exemplar of the kind of country we should aspire to be. So it would be an even match. "Would Australia have taken steps to make sure its own intelligence is based on Australian information and assessments? All agree, for example, that the United States with or without Australias assistance cannot win a war against China. And what would such a fight look like? Vietnam and Iraq were illegal wars, with the US Administration(s) lying to their citizens and their allies about the strategic necessity and the morality of the use of armed force. Mock attacks will no longer be fake. Dr Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst with ASPI's Defence, Strategy and National Security Program, told Daily Mail Australia it is increasingly likely President Xi Jinping will order Chinese forces. There are plenty of nations with grievances against China for its South China Sea policy. Americas military power is very great, but Chinas military power, and especially its capacity to deny its air and sea approaches to US forces, has grown sharply, and is now formidable, Professor White warned. Five-centuries-old saffron and ginger found preserved in shipwreck off Sweden, Chinese migrants walked a gruelling 500km to Victoria's goldfields in the 19th century. But apart from that, Australia has little military value to the US. This means any idea of sustained operations within the Pacific-spanning reach of Chinas ballistic and cruise missiles is likely optimistic. The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. February 27, 2023 China's foreign minister Qin Gang will attend the G20 foreign ministers' meeting on March 2. "Washington would expect Australia to contribute the full range of our air and naval forces to the maximum extent of our capability, including surface warships, submarines, F-18 and F-35 fighters, P-8 maritime patrol aircraft, airborne early warning aircraft and tanker aircraft.. The high-altitude balloon that drifted across the United States this month was seen by many Americans as a shocking Chinese breach of U.S. sovereignty. To accept that argument as policy would mark the end of our strategic alliance with the US, leaving us more exposed to Chinese coercive pressure and political warfare, or even a direct military threat, Dr Davis says. The structure of the military is also different. This week, China suspended the China-Australia Strategic Economic Dialogue a diplomatic mechanism for trade talksand accused Australia of "disrupt [ing] the normal exchanges and cooperation . The head of Russian mercenary group Wagner says his forces have practically encircled the crucial city of Bakhmut. Its artificial island fortresses are unsinkable outposts. "Unlike the experience of the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan that affected only the members deployed into conflict, and their families, a war with China will have an impact on all Australians economically, financially, and personally. China is aware of this gap. Then, it was mainly Germany, and from the 1930s Japan. John Howard says he has no regrets about the war in Iraq or Australia's involvement in it. Space would be the first place both sides would go to strike the others forces in event of a conflict, says Tate Nurkin of the US-based Intelligence Group. The almost daily probes of Taiwans air defences would suddenly turn serious. If other countries come to our aid, that will be highly appreciated, but we will fight the war for our own survival and for our own future.. Beijings response was prompt and predictable. It was Kevin Rudd who coined the phrase a "decade of living dangerously". The U.S. economy is heavily dependent on Chinese resources and manufactured goods, including many with military applications, and American consumers rely on moderately priced Chinese-made imports for everything from electronics to furniture to shoes. Admiral Chris Barriemakes the point that its possible the impact on Australia of any war with China could be greater than any other participant because of Australias low population. The only way we can possibly win such a war is to build a coalition similar to NATO. "If they think the blockade is failing they may declare victory by pointing to the damage already inflicted, or they might escalate to attacking US forces that are supporting Taiwan. "He would rather support Taiwan and enlist countries around the world in sanctioning or condemning China. "The bases in South Korea and Japan may not be available, and Guam may also be unavailable. Performers dressed as the military celebrated Chinas military might on Monday nights gala in Beijing to celebrate the Chinese Communist Partys centenary. At the last G20 foreign ministers' meeting, in Bali last summer, Lavrov walked out amid condemnations of Russia's war and its impact on global food and energy costs. If the United States cannot control the air, it cannot win either at land or at sea. The map below, compiled from data provided by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), is the most accurate nuclear attack map and fallout demonstration available for 2023: (Image courtesy of FEMA and Halcyon Maps) The fallout would rapidly spread, turning targeted cities into whole affected regions. For China, the worst-case scenario is to have to conduct high-intensity operations against Taiwan, the United States, Japan and other US allies and partners simultaneously.". These waterways could be used to bottle up Chinese forces. And I cannot see America being willing to risk Chinese nuclear retaliation against the US homeland for Taiwan's sake. This article was originally published by Radio Free Asia and is reprinted with permission. America would win because the Australians have been weakened for years by the Emus. "A blockade means that 80 per cent of ships and aircraft will be unable to pass. War over Taiwan would be disastrous, Australias chief of defence General Angus Campbell told a recent gathering. Any such war, he says, would primarily be a maritime conflict and would be on a scale unprecedented since World War II. It is for that reason that some commentators, including me, do not think that China is likely to initiate an offensive war in the near future, until it is sure that it has enough mass to win quickly. "They would probably inflict a lot of damage on Chinese targets, but they would suffer very serious losses in the process. "China does have the mass to sustain a war of attrition over a long period as it did, and has continued to do, in Korea and in Vietnam for that matter.". And Beijings new navy has been in almost a constant string of live fire exercises for the past year. Those are easy targets. With China's rise and democracy's decline, what will the global order look like in 2050? With China's rise and democracy's decline, what will the global order look like in 2050? We acknowledge Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples as the First Australians and Traditional Custodians of the lands where we live, learn, and work. Confronting as that would be, perhaps more confronting is something many people do not realise: such a decision would not require any consultation in parliament. All times AEDT (GMT +11). Some wouldn't survive. A major war in the Indo-Pacific is probably more likely now than at any other time since World War II. Australians could wake up one morning to the news that we are at war with China. It means mine laying by air and naval units, particularly submarines, blockading ports, inspecting maritime traffic including commercial shipping, intercepting aircraft, and attacking adversary military forces as necessary. He uses it in his new book, The Avoidable War: The Dangers of a Catastrophic Conflict Between the US and Xi Jinping's. He says given the rate at which Chinese forces are modernising and building capability and capacity "a Chinese victory over the US is the more likely outcome beyond 2035". A month earlier, Xi Jinping had told the Peoples Liberation Army: We should persist in using combat to guide our work; step up preparations for war.. Iraq should have taught us that it makes no sense to support an ally in a war it cant win, and the stakes are much higher this time.. It now overlaps the ancestral territory of Japan, Vietnam, the Philippines, Borneo and India. "Australia should take a position where averting war is a serious policy objective. What would all the other countries in Asia, such as South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, and Indonesia do? This service may include material from Agence France-Presse (AFP), APTN, Reuters, AAP, CNN and the BBC World Service which is copyright and cannot be reproduced. Certainly not in the six-to-eight minutes it could take a DF-11 A rocket to cross the 130 kilometre-wide Taiwan Strait to its target. Yet if China wanted to conquer Taiwan, the outcome could be different.